Richtig. JEDER Wechselrichter hat beim Wandeln DC nach AC Verluste.
Das ist ja auch richtig, die Frage ist nur wieviel. Bei mir scheint der Wirkungsgrad bei >98% zu sein.
Ich habe mehrere DC-Sensoren für DC, einer der sich Power.DC.Total.Calculated nennt, der kommt vom Solateur. Dieser Wert rechnet aus Spannung und Strom die Leistung aus.
Des weiteren habe ich zwei Sensoren vom Solateur und vom WS die beide Deckungsgleich sind. Hier wird mir bereits eine Leistung angezeigt, noch bevor der Strom hochgeht. Erst ab ca. 130W geht auch der Strom hoch. Ich mußte mal ausrechnen wieviel Strom das enspricht, sollten ca. 0,4A sein. Das wird gebraucht um den Wechselrichter erst einmal zu starten. Das ist auf jeden Fall als Verlust zu verbuchen. Das würden auf die max. Leistung vom Wechselrichter ca. 1,2% sein.
Was ich bei mir merke ist, das die Verluste (in Watt) über den gesammten Bereich gleich sind. Ich habe keinen Transformator im Wandler - das ist wichtig.
Die Frage ist als nicht ob einen Wechselrichter Verluste hat - das muß man mit Ja beantworten.
Sondern wie hoch sind die Verluste beim eigenen System.
Ich kann das bei mir nicht zu 100% ausrechnen, da die AC-Werte immer Laden/Entladen von der Batterie mit rechnen. Wenn ich das aber an den Tagesenergy-Zählern festmache bin ich immer über die 98%
Gruß Ralf
… und genau deswegen habe ich ja geschrieben, dass beim suedschwede es so doch eigentlich nicht sein kann. Sein WR reicht die 694W “einfach” durch!!!
1 „Gefällt mir“
bei mir wird noch der AC Sensor angezeigt, den ich mal vor Versionen angegeben habe. (meine Vermutung)
Hier nochmal die Log von der 0:30 Morning Routine (aber noch auf der alten Version!
Was auch nur auf dem Pi aufgetreten ist.
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - === EARLY MORNING FORECAST SCHEDULER TRIGGERED at 00:30:00 ===
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Creating early morning forecast task...
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - >>> STARTING EARLY MORNING FORECAST (00:30 scheduled execution) <<<
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO -
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - ╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - ║ EARLY MORNING FORECAST @ 00:30 - Initial daily forecast ║
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - ╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_weather - INFO - Forecast using database: 72 hours across 3 days
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.sensors.sensor_data_collector - DEBUG - Collected external sensor data: {'temperature': None, 'humidity': None, 'wind_speed': None, 'rain': None, 'pressure': None, 'solar_radiation': None, 'lux': None}
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - DEBUG - Creating forecast (AI + Physics)...
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - DEBUG - Lag-Feature 'production_yesterday' = 0.42 kWh (from DB: 2026-02-18)
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Physics+LSTM blend active
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Ensemble disagreement 67.3% > 30%: penalty=0.66, confidence=0.07 (LSTM=0.089, Ridge=0.179)
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=370%, taper=0.20, conf=0.11->0.02
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=63%, taper=0.92, conf=0.24->0.22
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=65%, taper=0.91, conf=0.24->0.22
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=224%, taper=0.20, conf=0.24->0.05
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=151%, taper=0.40, conf=0.24->0.09
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=164%, taper=0.32, conf=0.24->0.08
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=178%, taper=0.23, conf=0.08->0.02
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Ensemble disagreement 42.6% > 30%: penalty=0.79, confidence=0.06 (LSTM=0.071, Ridge=0.110)
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=196%, taper=0.20, conf=0.06->0.01
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Ensemble disagreement 143.1% > 30%: penalty=0.50, confidence=0.04 (LSTM=0.013, Ridge=0.079)
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Ensemble disagreement 104.7% > 30%: penalty=0.50, confidence=0.05 (LSTM=0.017, Ridge=0.055)
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Ensemble disagreement 57.7% > 30%: penalty=0.71, confidence=0.08 (LSTM=0.099, Ridge=0.180)
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=363%, taper=0.20, conf=0.11->0.02
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=57%, taper=0.96, conf=0.24->0.23
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=238%, taper=0.20, conf=0.24->0.05
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=178%, taper=0.23, conf=0.24->0.05
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=118%, taper=0.59, conf=0.24->0.14
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=74%, taper=0.86, conf=0.24->0.20
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=97%, taper=0.72, conf=0.08->0.06
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Ensemble disagreement 44.0% > 30%: penalty=0.78, confidence=0.06 (LSTM=0.070, Ridge=0.110)
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=152%, taper=0.39, conf=0.06->0.02
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Ensemble disagreement 162.8% > 30%: penalty=0.50, confidence=0.04 (LSTM=0.008, Ridge=0.079)
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Skipping hourly predictions for locked dates: 2026-02-18, 2026-02-19, 2026-02-20
2026-02-19 00:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - INFO - Forecast complete: Today=0.83 kWh, Tomorrow=3.44 kWh, Day After=0.00 kWh, Method=AI + Physics
2026-02-19 00:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Generated full forecast for 2026-02-19: today=0.83, tomorrow=3.44, day_after=0.00 kWh
2026-02-19 00:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - DEBUG - Loaded 48 weather hours from DB (3-day range: 2026-02-19 to 2026-02-21)
2026-02-19 00:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO -
2026-02-19 00:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ================================================================================
2026-02-19 00:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - MORNING ROUTINE EXECUTION - Attempt 1/3 for 2026-02-19
2026-02-19 00:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ================================================================================
2026-02-19 00:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - → Step 1/5: Validating prerequisites...
2026-02-19 00:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - DEBUG - All prerequisites validated
2026-02-19 00:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ✓ Prerequisites validated: 72 forecast hours, 48 weather hours
2026-02-19 00:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - → Step 2/5: Creating hourly predictions in database...
2026-02-19 00:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Checking and unlocking existing forecast locks...
2026-02-19 00:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - │ 🔓 Found 24 existing predictions - will update
2026-02-19 00:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Preparing to update predictions for 3 days...
2026-02-19 00:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - │ Preserved 15 hourly actuals, 12 group actuals before re-creation
2026-02-19 00:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - │ Cleared 72 existing prediction slots for update
2026-02-19 00:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Processing 72 input forecast entries (3 days)...
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Restored 15 hourly actuals, 12 group actuals, 15 sensor, 15 weather actuals
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Calculating daily totals from saved predictions for 3 days...
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - │ → 2026-02-19: 0.83 kWh
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - │ → 2026-02-20: 3.44 kWh
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - │ → 2026-02-21: 0.00 kWh
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Saving daily forecasts to database for 3 days...
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - DEBUG - → Daily forecasts LOCKED for 3 days: locked=TRUE, locked_at=2026-02-19 00:30:01.091720+01:00
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Updating coordinator expected daily production...
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_state_handler - DEBUG - Expected daily production saved: 0.83 kWh
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Setting morning routine lock for 2026-02-19...
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - DEBUG - → Lock flag set: last_set_date = 2026-02-19
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - └─ SUMMARY:
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - • Input entries: 72 (3 days)
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - • Created predictions: 72
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - • Predictions per day:
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - - 2026-02-18: 24 hours, 0.00 kWh
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - - 2026-02-19: 24 hours, 0.83 kWh
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - - 2026-02-20: 24 hours, 3.44 kWh
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - • Coordinator updated: Yes (today=0.83 kWh)
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ✓ Hourly predictions created successfully
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - → Step 3/5: Verifying data integrity...
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - ERROR - No predictions found for 2026-02-21 after creation!
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - ERROR - Morning routine attempt 1/3 FAILED: Integrity verification failed
Traceback (most recent call last):
File "<frozen production_morning_routine>", line 118, in execute_morning_routine_with_retry
RuntimeError: Integrity verification failed
2026-02-19 00:30:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - Waiting 60s before retry 2...
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - INFO - Initializing forecast strategies...
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_strategy_base.rule_based - DEBUG - Strategy 'rule_based' initialized.
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Physics+ML Strategy: 1 panel groups configured
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Physics+ML Strategy: Local AI available
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - INFO - Forecast strategy initialized with local AI
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - PhysicsCalibrator stored, will connect when PanelGroupCalculator is created
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.coordinator - INFO - PhysicsCalibrator passed to RuleBasedStrategy - self-learning physics corrections enabled
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - WeatherActualTracker connected for SNOWY bucket detection
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_weather_actual_tracker - INFO - Per-group snow tracking enabled for 1 groups: ['Gruppe 1']
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.coordinator - INFO - WeatherActualTracker passed to RuleBasedStrategy - SNOWY bucket detection enabled
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.coordinator - INFO - DriftMonitor initialized
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_weather - INFO - Forecast using database: 72 hours across 3 days
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.sensors.sensor_data_collector - DEBUG - Collected external sensor data: {'temperature': None, 'humidity': None, 'wind_speed': None, 'rain': None, 'pressure': None, 'solar_radiation': None, 'lux': None}
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - DEBUG - Creating forecast (AI + Physics)...
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - DEBUG - Lag-Feature 'production_yesterday' = 0.42 kWh (from DB: 2026-02-18)
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Physics+LSTM blend active
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Physics engine initialized
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.physics.panel_group_calculator - INFO - Panel groups updated: 1 groups, total 0.88 kWp
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.physics.panel_group_calculator - DEBUG - PanelGroupCalculator initialized with 1 groups, total 0.88 kWp, albedo=0.20, sys_eff=0.90
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - PanelGroupCalculator initialized: 1 groups, 0.88 kWp
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.physics.panel_group_calculator - INFO - PhysicsCalibrator attached to PanelGroupCalculator
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - PhysicsCalibrator connected to PanelGroupCalculator for self-learning
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Ensemble disagreement 43.9% > 30%: penalty=0.78, confidence=0.08 (LSTM=0.123, Ridge=0.192)
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=418%, taper=0.20, conf=0.08->0.02
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=446%, taper=0.20, conf=0.11->0.02
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=78%, taper=0.83, conf=0.24->0.20
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=78%, taper=0.83, conf=0.24->0.20
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=248%, taper=0.20, conf=0.24->0.05
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=166%, taper=0.30, conf=0.24->0.07
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=180%, taper=0.22, conf=0.24->0.05
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=196%, taper=0.20, conf=0.08->0.02
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Ensemble disagreement 46.1% > 30%: penalty=0.77, confidence=0.06 (LSTM=0.073, Ridge=0.117)
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=211%, taper=0.20, conf=0.06->0.01
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Ensemble disagreement 150.1% > 30%: penalty=0.50, confidence=0.04 (LSTM=0.012, Ridge=0.086)
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=1360%, taper=0.20, conf=0.11->0.02
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Ensemble disagreement 36.8% > 30%: penalty=0.82, confidence=0.09 (LSTM=0.133, Ridge=0.193)
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=388%, taper=0.20, conf=0.09->0.02
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=432%, taper=0.20, conf=0.11->0.02
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=70%, taper=0.88, conf=0.24->0.21
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=263%, taper=0.20, conf=0.24->0.05
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=198%, taper=0.20, conf=0.24->0.05
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=131%, taper=0.52, conf=0.24->0.12
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=84%, taper=0.80, conf=0.24->0.19
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=109%, taper=0.65, conf=0.08->0.05
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Ensemble disagreement 47.7% > 30%: penalty=0.76, confidence=0.06 (LSTM=0.072, Ridge=0.117)
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Safeguard graduated [moderate]: AI agree, dev=164%, taper=0.32, conf=0.06->0.02
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Ensemble disagreement 169.7% > 30%: penalty=0.50, confidence=0.04 (LSTM=0.007, Ridge=0.086)
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Skipping hourly predictions for locked dates: 2026-02-18, 2026-02-19, 2026-02-20
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - INFO - Forecast complete: Today=0.84 kWh, Tomorrow=3.44 kWh, Day After=0.00 kWh, Method=AI + Physics
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - DEBUG - Skipping today forecast storage - locked by morning routine
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - DEBUG - Skipping tomorrow forecast storage - locked by morning routine
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - DEBUG - Skipping day_after_tomorrow forecast storage - locked by morning routine
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.core.core_coordinator_update_helpers - DEBUG - Forecast generated: today=0.84 kWh, tomorrow=3.44 kWh, method=AI + Physics, hourly_entries=72
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_history - DEBUG - Peak time calculation: Using stored hourly production data
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.core.core_coordinator_update_helpers - DEBUG - Skipping today forecast update - locked by morning routine
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.core.core_coordinator_update_helpers - DEBUG - Skipping tomorrow forecast update - locked by morning routine
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.core.core_coordinator_update_helpers - DEBUG - Skipping day_after_tomorrow forecast update - locked by morning routine
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.core.core_coordinator_update_helpers - DEBUG - Forecasts saved to database (respecting locks)
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.coordinator - DEBUG - Hourly predictions cache refreshed: 24 predictions
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.coordinator - DEBUG - Finished fetching solar_forecast_ml data in 0.645 seconds (success: True)
2026-02-19 00:30:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.core.core_helpers - DEBUG - ensure_local: Naive datetime, localizing to local timezone
2026-02-19 00:31:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO -
2026-02-19 00:31:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ================================================================================
2026-02-19 00:31:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - MORNING ROUTINE EXECUTION - Attempt 2/3 for 2026-02-19
2026-02-19 00:31:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ================================================================================
2026-02-19 00:31:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - → Step 1/5: Validating prerequisites...
2026-02-19 00:31:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - DEBUG - All prerequisites validated
2026-02-19 00:31:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ✓ Prerequisites validated: 72 forecast hours, 48 weather hours
2026-02-19 00:31:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - → Step 2/5: Creating hourly predictions in database...
2026-02-19 00:31:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Checking and unlocking existing forecast locks...
2026-02-19 00:31:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - │ 🔓 Found 24 existing predictions - will update
2026-02-19 00:31:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - │ 🔓 Unlocking daily_forecast (was locked at 2026-02-19 00:30:01.091720+01:00 by morning_routine)
2026-02-19 00:31:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Preparing to update predictions for 3 days...
2026-02-19 00:31:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - │ Preserved 15 hourly actuals, 12 group actuals before re-creation
2026-02-19 00:31:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - │ Cleared 72 existing prediction slots for update
2026-02-19 00:31:04 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Processing 72 input forecast entries (3 days)...
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Restored 15 hourly actuals, 12 group actuals, 15 sensor, 15 weather actuals
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Calculating daily totals from saved predictions for 3 days...
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - │ → 2026-02-19: 0.83 kWh
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - │ → 2026-02-20: 3.44 kWh
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - │ → 2026-02-21: 0.00 kWh
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Saving daily forecasts to database for 3 days...
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - DEBUG - → Daily forecasts LOCKED for 3 days: locked=TRUE, locked_at=2026-02-19 00:31:04.920566+01:00
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Updating coordinator expected daily production...
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_state_handler - DEBUG - Expected daily production saved: 0.83 kWh
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Setting morning routine lock for 2026-02-19...
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - DEBUG - → Lock flag set: last_set_date = 2026-02-19
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - └─ SUMMARY:
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - • Input entries: 72 (3 days)
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - • Created predictions: 72
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - • Predictions per day:
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - - 2026-02-18: 24 hours, 0.00 kWh
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - - 2026-02-19: 24 hours, 0.83 kWh
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - - 2026-02-20: 24 hours, 3.44 kWh
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - • Coordinator updated: Yes (today=0.83 kWh)
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ✓ Hourly predictions created successfully
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - → Step 3/5: Verifying data integrity...
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - ERROR - No predictions found for 2026-02-21 after creation!
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - ERROR - Morning routine attempt 2/3 FAILED: Integrity verification failed
Traceback (most recent call last):
File "<frozen production_morning_routine>", line 118, in execute_morning_routine_with_retry
RuntimeError: Integrity verification failed
2026-02-19 00:31:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - Waiting 120s before retry 3...
2026-02-19 00:33:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO -
2026-02-19 00:33:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ================================================================================
2026-02-19 00:33:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - MORNING ROUTINE EXECUTION - Attempt 3/3 for 2026-02-19
2026-02-19 00:33:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ================================================================================
2026-02-19 00:33:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - → Step 1/5: Validating prerequisites...
2026-02-19 00:33:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - DEBUG - All prerequisites validated
2026-02-19 00:33:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ✓ Prerequisites validated: 72 forecast hours, 48 weather hours
2026-02-19 00:33:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - → Step 2/5: Creating hourly predictions in database...
2026-02-19 00:33:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Checking and unlocking existing forecast locks...
2026-02-19 00:33:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - │ 🔓 Found 24 existing predictions - will update
2026-02-19 00:33:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - │ 🔓 Unlocking daily_forecast (was locked at 2026-02-19 00:31:04.920566+01:00 by morning_routine)
2026-02-19 00:33:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Preparing to update predictions for 3 days...
2026-02-19 00:33:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - │ Preserved 15 hourly actuals, 12 group actuals before re-creation
2026-02-19 00:33:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - │ Cleared 72 existing prediction slots for update
2026-02-19 00:33:08 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Processing 72 input forecast entries (3 days)...
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Restored 15 hourly actuals, 12 group actuals, 15 sensor, 15 weather actuals
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Calculating daily totals from saved predictions for 3 days...
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - │ → 2026-02-19: 0.83 kWh
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - │ → 2026-02-20: 3.44 kWh
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - │ → 2026-02-21: 0.00 kWh
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Saving daily forecasts to database for 3 days...
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - DEBUG - → Daily forecasts LOCKED for 3 days: locked=TRUE, locked_at=2026-02-19 00:33:08.779677+01:00
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Updating coordinator expected daily production...
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_state_handler - DEBUG - Expected daily production saved: 0.83 kWh
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ├─ Setting morning routine lock for 2026-02-19...
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - DEBUG - → Lock flag set: last_set_date = 2026-02-19
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - └─ SUMMARY:
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - • Input entries: 72 (3 days)
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - • Created predictions: 72
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - • Predictions per day:
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - - 2026-02-18: 24 hours, 0.00 kWh
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - - 2026-02-19: 24 hours, 0.83 kWh
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - - 2026-02-20: 24 hours, 3.44 kWh
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - • Coordinator updated: Yes (today=0.83 kWh)
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ✓ Hourly predictions created successfully
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - → Step 3/5: Verifying data integrity...
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - ERROR - No predictions found for 2026-02-21 after creation!
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - ERROR - Morning routine attempt 3/3 FAILED: Integrity verification failed
Traceback (most recent call last):
File "<frozen production_morning_routine>", line 118, in execute_morning_routine_with_retry
RuntimeError: Integrity verification failed
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - ERROR - CRITICAL: Morning routine FAILED after 3 attempts! Manual intervention required
2026-02-19 00:33:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - ERROR - ✗✗✗ EARLY MORNING FORECAST FAILED - CHECK LOGS ABOVE
So bin nun auch auf was brauchbares umgestiegen hatte hier noch einen Minisforum rum liegen 
@simon42 Danke für dein Migations Video
https://youtu.be/3VBrObuwWac?si=Qe5nwxMFDVzZIHbP
Und was soll ich sagen es geht 
@Tom-HA Danke für dieses toll Integration !!! Könnte ich vielleicht auch diesen tollen PIN bekommen
Danke für den Hinweis:
Smartmeter SGM = Poweropti Lesekopf cloud
Smartmeter = per Api auf Powerfox
Smartmeter IP = Fronius Smartmeter
Hier zeigt sich deutlich das Problem mit den unterschiedlichen Aktualisierungszeiten. Das hatte Tom vor gefühlt mehreren tausend Beiträgen auch schon mal erwähnt.
Das ist echt ein schwieriges Thema: Die Sensoren triggern ja bei einer Zuständsänderung, und die muss nicht bei allen Beteiligten gleich sein.
2 „Gefällt mir“
Die Statistik der Kalibrierungsfaktoren liefert seit dem Update auf 16.8 keine Werte mehr. Muss der SQL Sensor geändert werden?
Deswegen verwende ich den Fronius Smartmeter IP für alle Einsatzzwecke. Dann habe ich keine Abweichungen über cloud Service, oder was auch immer.
Warum fehlen bei mir die ct/kWh preis obwohl ich die von Tibber genommen habe und in ct/kWh umgerechnet habe und hinterlegt habe ?
@Tom-HA ich benutze SFML zwar erst seit 4 Tagen bin aber bereits total begeistert und vor allem sehr gespannt wie die KI mit der unterschiedlichen Verschattung bei uns durch Bäume im Winter und Sommer klarkommt. Da die Verschattung zumindest im Sommer nur die Südwestseite betrifft, wäre es super wenn ich die unterschiedlichen Prognosen pro Gruppe wieder sehen könnte und dafür die PIN bekommen könnte.
Um meine Frage von vorhin nochmal bildlich darzustellen
Ich muss das jetzt nicht vorrechnen, wir wissen alle, dass es so ungefähr ist.
Ich suche die Quelle bzw. den Sensor dafür, dass bei mir und anderen Usern laut Anzeige in STATS am Wechselrichter 4 W DC rein gehen und 4 W AC raus kommen.
Tom schrieb weiter oben, vor 3 Tagen, es ist ein Bug, der mit dem Update verschwindet, weil ich ihn dann nicht mehr sehe.
Nun sehe ich ihn aber bei mir noch und bei Robert z.B. nicht, obwohl wir heute beide das Update gemacht haben.
Man könnte auch anders fragen.
Wie errechnet Stats den AC-Wert vom Wechselrichter zum Haus?
oder
Welchen Sensor muss ich mit dem AC-Wert aller Module wo eintragen?
Edit:
Ich habe auf den falschen Beitrag geantwortet, kann das aber gerade nicht ändern.
Sorry @Joachim-xo 
Guten Abend allerseits,
ich habe nochmal etwas an meinen Prognose-IST-Kurven herumgeflext. Jetzt kann man sich nicht nur den heutigen Tag, sondern auch die Vortage anschauen. Sämtliche Daten stammen aus der SFML-Datenbank von Tom. Mein Tool ist besonders für diejenigen von Euch interessant, die SFML-STATS mangels passender Hardware nicht betreiben können. Ihr findet es hier.
Euch einen schönen Abend
Burkard
14 „Gefällt mir“
2 „Gefällt mir“
Macht nix!
Ich verwette meinen rechten Schuh, dass es so ist, wie ich Nachmittags schrieb:
Update installiert; funktioniert einwandfrei (Proxmox-NUC). Und ich bin schwer beeindruckt von den Ergebnissen! Die Kiste lernt tatsächlich und wird immer genauer. Chapeau, Tom!
@Kai2 Der Power-Sensor von SFML liefert die DC-Leistung der Solarzellen — also das, was die Module auf dem Dach produzieren, nicht was nach dem Wechselrichter rauskommt.
Stats rechnet keine DC→AC-Umwandlung. Wenn also 4W DC von den Modulen kommen, zeigt Stats auch 4W als Solar → Haus an. Der tatsächliche AC-Wert nach dem Wechselrichter ist natürlich etwas geringer (Wirkungsgrad).
Welchen Sensor man als AC-Wert eintragen muss? Klassischerweise Solar → House also das was der WR AC-Seitig einspeist. Hier liegt der BUG: Durch das ein- und ausblenden (DEV vs Normal-Version) ist der Konfigurationsparameter schlicht nicht erreichbar (der Fix)
Habe ich notiert als BUG
Kausalkette:
Pwr Dc kommt von Stats > SLR-House fehlt > Fallback > keine Effizienzberechnung / falsche Darstellung.
Warum betrifft es nicht alle: Alle die es vor dem Update korrekt hatten, haben keinen Impact da der Sensor silent in der config noch vorhanden ist > alle neuen Installationen können ihn nicht eingeben. also immer Fallback
2 „Gefällt mir“
hab jetzt hier alle sensoren durch .. aber woher bekommt ihr die prognose linie!?
