Kurz nochmal eine Bestätigung von mir: Bei mir ist es exact so wie bei @pmcl.
Alles ist ebenfalls auf dem aktuellen Stand und auch das Problem schon seit längerer Zeit zu beobachten.
Nach Rechnung aus Produktions Start war heute Production Start um ~4:53 (um 5:00 wurden mir 7:18min angezeigt)
Um 5:05 sind die ersten 0,002kwh registriert worden.
Prognose heute ist heute um 4:55 auf 44,33kwh gesetzt worden.
Prognose rest ist heute um 5:00 von 0 auf 37,65 kwh gesetzt worden.
Stats zeigt für heute eine Prognose von 37,7kwh an.
Laut Log wurden erst die 44,33kwh geschrieben und dann kurz danach die 37,65kwh…
Grüße
Heatseeker
2026-06-27 05:00:20 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ================================================================================
2026-06-27 05:00:20 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ✓✓✓ MORNING ROUTINE SUCCESSFUL ✓✓✓
2026-06-27 05:00:20 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - Date: 2026-06-27 | Attempt: 1/3
2026-06-27 05:00:20 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO - ================================================================================
2026-06-27 05:00:20 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_morning_routine - INFO -
2026-06-27 05:00:20 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_manager - DEBUG - Best hour forecast saved: hour=14, prediction=5.341 kWh, source=AI + Physics
2026-06-27 05:00:20 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Best hour saved: 14:00 (5.341 kWh)
2026-06-27 05:00:20 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_manager - DEBUG - Skipping tomorrow forecast update - locked by morning routine
2026-06-27 05:00:20 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - DEBUG - Tomorrow forecast saved: 35.45 kWh
2026-06-27 05:00:20 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_manager - DEBUG - Skipping day_after_tomorrow forecast update - locked by morning routine
2026-06-27 05:00:20 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - DEBUG - Day-after forecast saved: 35.74 kWh
2026-06-27 05:00:20 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO -
2026-06-27 05:00:20 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - ✓✓✓ ALL MORNING TASKS COMPLETED SUCCESSFULLY! ✓✓✓
2026-06-27 05:00:20 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO -
2026-06-27 05:00:20 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=low_sun_uncertain, rain=1.7)
2026-06-27 05:00:20 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=low_sun_uncertain, rain=1.7)
2026-06-27 05:00:20 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=1.7)
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=stable_good, rain=0.4)
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=0.4)
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=0.4)
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=low_sun_uncertain, rain=2.8)
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=low_sun_uncertain, rain=2.8)
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=2.8)
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=stable_good, rain=0.4)
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=stable_good, rain=0.4)
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=stable_good, rain=0.4)
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=0.3)
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Skipping hourly predictions for locked dates: 2026-06-26, 2026-06-27, 2026-06-28, 2026-06-29
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Forecast strategy summary: hours=96, regime_bias_correction=8, regime_learning_available=96, regime_learning_shrinkage=85, regime_tfs_risk_cap=4, similar_weather_adjustment=15, similar_weather_underforecast_relaxation=15, static_regime_bias=8, tfs_adaptive_blend=48, tfs_policy_adjustment=4
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - INFO - Forecast complete: Today=44.33 kWh, Tomorrow=43.17 kWh, Day After=42.70 kWh, Method=AI + Physics
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - DEBUG - Forecast storage skipped for locked morning forecasts: today, tomorrow, day_after_tomorrow
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_manager - DEBUG - Saved forecast day: 44.33 kWh (source: fallback_open_meteo_startup_recovery)
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_state_handler - DEBUG - Expected daily production saved: 44.33 kWh
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.coordinator - INFO - Recovery: expected_daily_production set to 44.33 kWh (open_meteo_startup_recovery)
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_weather - INFO - Forecast using database: 72 hours across 3 days
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.sensors.sensor_data_collector - DEBUG - Collected external sensor data: {'temperature': None, 'humidity': None, 'wind_speed': None, 'rain': None, 'pressure': 1009.0, 'solar_radiation': None, 'lux': None}
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - DEBUG - Creating forecast (AI + Physics)...
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - DEBUG - Lag-Feature 'production_yesterday' = 42.32 kWh (from DB: 2026-06-26)
2026-06-27 05:00:21 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - INFO - TFS forecast: 62.13 kWh (score 0.55)
2026-06-27 05:00:22 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=mixed_uncertain, rain=2.6)
2026-06-27 05:00:22 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=2.6)
2026-06-27 05:00:22 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=2.6)
2026-06-27 05:00:22 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=1.9)
2026-06-27 05:00:22 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=1.9)
2026-06-27 05:00:22 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=1.9)
2026-06-27 05:00:22 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=0.5)
2026-06-27 05:00:22 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=low_sun_uncertain, rain=0.5)
2026-06-27 05:00:22 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=low_sun_uncertain, rain=0.5)
2026-06-27 05:00:22 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=low_sun_uncertain, rain=0.6)
2026-06-27 05:00:22 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=0.6)
2026-06-27 05:00:22 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=0.6)
2026-06-27 05:00:23 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Skipping hourly predictions for locked dates: 2026-06-27, 2026-06-28, 2026-06-29
2026-06-27 05:00:23 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Forecast strategy summary: hours=72, bad_weather_cap=2, bad_weather_confidence=2, bad_weather_consensus_tfs_escape=2, regime_bias_correction=6, regime_learning_available=72, regime_learning_shrinkage=46, regime_tfs_risk_cap=4, similar_weather_adjustment=19, similar_weather_tfs_cap_relaxation=2, similar_weather_underforecast_relaxation=19, static_regime_bias=6, tfs_adaptive_blend=48, tfs_low_sun_envelope=1, tfs_policy_adjustment=8
2026-06-27 05:00:23 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - INFO - Forecast complete: Today=37.79 kWh, Tomorrow=36.25 kWh, Day After=35.49 kWh, Method=AI + Physics
2026-06-27 05:00:23 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - DEBUG - Forecast storage skipped for locked morning forecasts: today, tomorrow, day_after_tomorrow
2026-06-27 05:00:23 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.core.core_coordinator_update_helpers - DEBUG - Forecast generated: today=37.79 kWh, tomorrow=36.25 kWh, method=AI + Physics, hourly_entries=72
2026-06-27 05:00:23 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_history - DEBUG - Peak time calculation: Using stored hourly production data
2026-06-27 05:00:23 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.core.core_coordinator_update_helpers - DEBUG - Skipping today forecast update - locked by morning routine
2026-06-27 05:00:23 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.core.core_coordinator_update_helpers - DEBUG - Skipping tomorrow forecast update - locked by morning routine
2026-06-27 05:00:23 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.core.core_coordinator_update_helpers - DEBUG - Skipping day_after_tomorrow forecast update - locked by morning routine
2026-06-27 05:00:23 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.core.core_coordinator_update_helpers - DEBUG - Forecasts saved to database (respecting locks)