Hallo,
seit dem 44er Update gibt der System Status Sensor nur noch Warnung aus.
steht auf beiden Systemen der “Systemstatus” auf Warnung.
Leider geben die Datails keine guten Infos.
das Live System seit dem 15.08. 0:00 und der Pi seit dem 16.08. 23:30
Ich schaue mal in die Logs was das vorgekommen ist.
Live System
Pi
EOD auf dem Live System ist heute das erste mal wieder mit einen AI Training gelaufen, aber state bleibt warning.
2026-08-20 23:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - === EOD SCHEDULER TRIGGERED at 23:30:00 ===
2026-08-20 23:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Creating EOD workflow task...
2026-08-20 23:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - >>> STARTING EOD WORKFLOW (scheduled execution) <<<
2026-08-20 23:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - ================================================================================
2026-08-20 23:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - END-OF-DAY WORKFLOW STARTED at 2026-08-20 23:30:00
2026-08-20 23:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - ================================================================================
2026-08-20 23:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Day finalized: yield=3.49 kWh, consumption=6.50 kWh, accuracy=78.6%
2026-08-20 23:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_io - DEBUG - DataManagerIO initialized with DatabaseManager
2026-08-20 23:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_shadow_detection - INFO - PerformanceLossAnalyzer initialized with DatabaseManager
2026-08-20 23:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_daily_summaries - INFO - Created daily summary for 2026-08-20
2026-08-20 23:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Daily summary created for 2026-08-20 using DailySummariesHandler
2026-08-20 23:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Day 2026-08-20 moved to history: 4.44 → 3.49 kWh
2026-08-20 23:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Statistics calculated successfully
2026-08-20 23:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - TFS vs SFML: TFS=0.65 kWh (18.7%), SFML=4.44 kWh (72.7%), IST=3.49 kWh → best=sfml
2026-08-20 23:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Calculating weather precision for 2026-08-20
2026-08-20 23:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_weather_precision - INFO - Calculating correction factors for 2026-08-20
2026-08-20 23:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_weather_precision - INFO - Loaded actual weather for 24 hours
2026-08-20 23:30:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_weather_precision - INFO - Loaded raw forecasts for 24 hours
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_weather_precision - INFO - Compared 24 hours successfully
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_weather_precision - INFO - Updated rolling factors: 8 days (clear=4, cloudy=4), solar=1.000, hourly_hours=0
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_weather_precision - INFO - Correction factors calculated for 2026-08-20: 24 hours, factors: {'temperature_offset': 4.67, 'pressure_offset': 0.0, 'solar_radiation_wm2_factor': 1.0, 'clouds_factor': 1.334, 'humidity_factor': 0.705, 'wind_factor': 1.0, 'rain_diff': -0.42}
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Weather precision calculated for 2026-08-20
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Weather MLP training skipped [weather_mlp_measured_radiation_unavailable]: no physically measured solar-radiation observations are available; Weather MLP requires W/m² sensor data
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Night cleanup: VACUUM disabled (DB auto-optimizes)
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - EOD training uses already persisted actuals
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - AIPredictor initialized: 2 groups, 0.88 kWp total, max_kwh_per_hour=2.00
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_lstm - INFO - TinyLSTM V3.0: input=33, layers=(48,24), seq=24, outputs=2, heads=4
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - INFO - TinyRidge initialized: input=33, seq=24, flat_size=792, outputs=2
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - INFO - TinyRidge weights loaded: outputs=2, samples=748, alpha=100.0, accuracy=0.813
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - Ridge weights loaded: 748 samples
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_lstm - INFO - Weights loaded: layers=(48,24), outputs=2, heads=4
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - LSTM weights loaded: 0 samples
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - Dual-model weights loaded: 955 samples, active=tiny_lstm, R²=0.877, RMSE=0.049kWh
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - AIPredictor initialized: 2 groups, 0.88 kWp total, max_kwh_per_hour=2.00
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_lstm - INFO - TinyLSTM V3.0: input=33, layers=(48,24), seq=24, outputs=2, heads=4
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - INFO - TinyRidge initialized: input=33, seq=24, flat_size=792, outputs=2
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - INFO - TinyRidge weights loaded: outputs=2, samples=748, alpha=100.0, accuracy=0.715
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - Ridge weights loaded: 748 samples
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_lstm - INFO - Weights loaded: layers=(48,24), outputs=2, heads=4
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - LSTM weights loaded: 0 samples
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - Dual-model weights loaded: 955 samples, active=tiny_lstm, R²=0.947, RMSE=0.032kWh
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - Migration candidate reconsideration skipped safely: keeper already has promotion-eligible shadow evidence
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.services.service_notification - DEBUG - [OK] Notification solar_forecast_ml_learning created
2026-08-20 23:30:01 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - AI training started: 2 outputs
2026-08-20 23:30:10 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - Prepared 936 training samples from 60 days, 2 outputs
2026-08-20 23:30:10 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - Panel-group training diagnostics: health=OK, samples=936, real_targets=936 (100.0%), direct_real_targets=936, residual_completed_targets=0, current_mixed_fallback=0, current_capacity_fallback=0, current_fallback_ratio=0.0%, legacy_topology_fallback=0, legacy_partial_fallback=0, legacy_fallback_ratio=0.0%, sum_mismatch_hours=0, partial_sum_exceeds_total_hours=0, range_rejections=0, topology_rejections=0, legacy_unknown_topology_rejections=0, invalid_value_rejections=0, training_range=2026-06-22..2026-08-20, current_fallback_range=none, legacy_fallback_range=none, affected_range=none
2026-08-20 23:30:11 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - INFO - TinyRidge initialized: input=33, seq=24, flat_size=792, outputs=2
2026-08-20 23:30:11 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_lstm - INFO - TinyLSTM V3.0: input=33, layers=(48,24), seq=24, outputs=2, heads=4
2026-08-20 23:30:11 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - Training Ridge with 936 samples...
2026-08-20 23:30:11 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - INFO - TinyRidge training started: 936 samples
2026-08-20 23:30:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - DEBUG - Alpha 0.001: LOO-CV MSE = 0.002112
2026-08-20 23:30:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - DEBUG - Alpha 0.01: LOO-CV MSE = 0.001481
2026-08-20 23:30:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - DEBUG - Alpha 0.1: LOO-CV MSE = 0.001307
2026-08-20 23:30:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - DEBUG - Alpha 1.0: LOO-CV MSE = 0.000815
2026-08-20 23:30:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - DEBUG - Alpha 10.0: LOO-CV MSE = 0.000559
2026-08-20 23:30:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - DEBUG - Alpha 100.0: LOO-CV MSE = 0.000449
2026-08-20 23:30:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - DEBUG - Alpha 1000.0: LOO-CV MSE = 0.000463
2026-08-20 23:30:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - INFO - Selected alpha = 100.0 (LOO-CV MSE = 0.000449)
2026-08-20 23:30:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - DEBUG - Alpha 0.001: LOO-CV MSE = 0.002104
2026-08-20 23:30:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - DEBUG - Alpha 0.01: LOO-CV MSE = 0.001516
2026-08-20 23:30:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - DEBUG - Alpha 0.1: LOO-CV MSE = 0.001327
2026-08-20 23:30:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - DEBUG - Alpha 1.0: LOO-CV MSE = 0.000820
2026-08-20 23:30:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - DEBUG - Alpha 10.0: LOO-CV MSE = 0.000562
2026-08-20 23:30:12 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - DEBUG - Alpha 100.0: LOO-CV MSE = 0.000454
2026-08-20 23:30:13 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - DEBUG - Alpha 1000.0: LOO-CV MSE = 0.000480
2026-08-20 23:30:13 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - INFO - Selected alpha = 100.0 (LOO-CV MSE = 0.000454)
2026-08-20 23:30:13 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - INFO - TinyRidge trained: alpha=100.0000, R²=0.765, RMSE=0.0628, samples=936, outputs=2
2026-08-20 23:30:13 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - Ridge trained: R²=0.765, alpha=100.0000
2026-08-20 23:30:13 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_lstm - INFO - Weights loaded: layers=(48,24), outputs=2, heads=4
2026-08-20 23:30:13 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - Seasonal warm-start: summer, archive 2026 (957 samples, R²=0.924)
2026-08-20 23:30:13 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - Training LSTM with 936 samples...
2026-08-20 23:30:13 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_lstm - INFO - Training V3.0: 936 samples, 200 epochs, 2 outputs
2026-08-20 23:31:25 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_weather - INFO - Forecast using database: 72 hours across 3 days
2026-08-20 23:31:25 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.sensors.sensor_data_collector - DEBUG - Collected external sensor data: {'temperature': 22.3, 'humidity': 68.0, 'wind_speed': None, 'rain': None, 'pressure': None, 'solar_radiation': None, 'lux': None}
2026-08-20 23:31:27 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - AIPredictor initialized: 2 groups, 0.88 kWp total, max_kwh_per_hour=2.00
2026-08-20 23:31:27 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_lstm - INFO - TinyLSTM V3.0: input=33, layers=(48,24), seq=24, outputs=2, heads=4
2026-08-20 23:31:27 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - INFO - TinyRidge initialized: input=33, seq=24, flat_size=792, outputs=2
2026-08-20 23:31:27 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - INFO - TinyRidge weights loaded: outputs=2, samples=748, alpha=100.0, accuracy=0.813
2026-08-20 23:31:27 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - Ridge weights loaded: 748 samples
2026-08-20 23:31:27 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_lstm - INFO - Weights loaded: layers=(48,24), outputs=2, heads=4
2026-08-20 23:31:27 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - LSTM weights loaded: 0 samples
2026-08-20 23:31:27 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - Dual-model weights loaded: 955 samples, active=tiny_lstm, R²=0.877, RMSE=0.049kWh
2026-08-20 23:31:29 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - AIPredictor initialized: 2 groups, 0.88 kWp total, max_kwh_per_hour=2.00
2026-08-20 23:31:29 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_lstm - INFO - TinyLSTM V3.0: input=33, layers=(48,24), seq=24, outputs=2, heads=4
2026-08-20 23:31:29 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - INFO - TinyRidge initialized: input=33, seq=24, flat_size=792, outputs=2
2026-08-20 23:31:29 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_ridge - INFO - TinyRidge weights loaded: outputs=2, samples=748, alpha=100.0, accuracy=0.715
2026-08-20 23:31:29 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - Ridge weights loaded: 748 samples
2026-08-20 23:31:29 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_lstm - INFO - Weights loaded: layers=(48,24), outputs=2, heads=4
2026-08-20 23:31:29 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - LSTM weights loaded: 0 samples
2026-08-20 23:31:29 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - Dual-model weights loaded: 955 samples, active=tiny_lstm, R²=0.947, RMSE=0.032kWh
2026-08-20 23:31:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - Migration candidate reconsideration skipped safely: keeper already has promotion-eligible shadow evidence
2026-08-20 23:31:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - DEBUG - Creating forecast (AI + Physics)...
2026-08-20 23:31:37 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - DEBUG - Lag-Feature 'production_yesterday' = 5.27 kWh (from DB: 2026-08-19)
2026-08-20 23:31:38 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - INFO - TFS forecast: 4.41 kWh (score 0.52)
2026-08-20 23:31:43 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=0.2)
2026-08-20 23:31:49 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=low_sun_uncertain, rain=0.5)
2026-08-20 23:31:49 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=0.5)
2026-08-20 23:31:49 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=low_sun_uncertain, rain=0.5)
2026-08-20 23:32:00 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_lstm - INFO - Epoch 10: train=0.0004, val=0.0011, lr=0.004970
2026-08-20 23:33:50 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_lstm - INFO - Epoch 20: train=0.0005, val=0.0012, lr=0.004880
2026-08-20 23:34:38 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=0.4)
2026-08-20 23:34:46 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_lstm - INFO - Early stopping at epoch 25
2026-08-20 23:34:47 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_tiny_lstm - INFO - Training complete: R2=0.794, RMSE=0.059 kWh, outputs=2, layers=2, heads=4
2026-08-20 23:34:47 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - LSTM trained: R²=0.794, epochs=25, layers=2, heads=4
2026-08-20 23:34:47 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - Selected candidate model: LSTM (936 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:47 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_predictor - INFO - Training candidate stored: id=08d09f33-e6ee-492c-b0ff-394e4b73d08a, R²=0.794, RMSE=0.059kWh, samples=936, outputs=2
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - AI model trained: R²=0.794, RMSE=0.059kWh, samples=936, features=33, outputs=2, attention=ON
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=0.4)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=low_sun_uncertain, rain=0.4)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.coordinator - INFO - Coordinator notified of AI Training completion at 2026-08-20 23:34:48.156428+02:00. Accuracy: 0.7942347839846746
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.sensors.sensor_system_status - DEBUG - Status updated: event=ai_training, status=success, state=warning
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.services.service_notification - DEBUG - [OK] Notification solar_forecast_ml_learning dismissed
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.services.service_notification - DEBUG - [OK] Notification solar_forecast_ml_learning created
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_dni_tracker - DEBUG - DNI tracker saved to database
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_dni_tracker - INFO - DNI tracker end-of-day update complete
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Method learning [overcast/morning]: physics_mae=0.1797, ai_mae=0.1779, advantage=1.01 (109 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Method learning [overcast/midday]: physics_mae=0.3310, ai_mae=0.2968, advantage=1.12 (180 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Method learning [overcast/afternoon]: physics_mae=0.0925, ai_mae=0.0620, advantage=1.49 (119 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Method performance learning completed for 2026-08-20
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Weather regime learning: using ops_morning_snapshot source for 2026-08-20 (15 rows)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Weather regime learning [low_sun_uncertain/morning]: best=blend, physics_mae=0.0014, ai_mae=N/A, tfs_mae=N/A, blend_bias=-0.0010 (1 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Weather regime learning [dry_cloud_edge/morning]: best=physics, physics_mae=0.0387, ai_mae=0.1776, tfs_mae=0.0421, blend_bias=0.0697 (1 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Weather regime learning [low_ghi_overcast/morning]: best=blend, physics_mae=0.1862, ai_mae=0.1840, tfs_mae=0.1967, blend_bias=-0.1365 (2 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Weather regime learning [low_ghi_overcast/midday]: best=blend, physics_mae=0.6213, ai_mae=0.5927, tfs_mae=0.5881, blend_bias=-0.5269 (2 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Weather regime learning [rain_overcast/midday]: best=blend, physics_mae=0.2281, ai_mae=0.1059, tfs_mae=0.0958, blend_bias=-0.0877 (3 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Weather regime learning [rain_overcast/afternoon]: best=tfs, physics_mae=0.1343, ai_mae=0.0733, tfs_mae=0.0725, blend_bias=-0.0866 (5 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Weather regime learning [low_sun_uncertain/afternoon]: best=blend, physics_mae=0.0237, ai_mae=N/A, tfs_mae=0.0100, blend_bias=0.0150 (1 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Weather regime performance learning completed for 2026-08-20: 14 buckets updated
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Ensemble weight [Gruppe 1/overcast/morning]: lstm=0.50 ridge=0.50 (lstm_mae=0.0938, ridge_mae=0.0940, 87 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Ensemble weight [Gruppe 2/overcast/morning]: lstm=0.50 ridge=0.50 (lstm_mae=0.0952, ridge_mae=0.0954, 88 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Ensemble weight [Gruppe 1/overcast/midday]: lstm=0.47 ridge=0.53 (lstm_mae=0.1594, ridge_mae=0.1409, 179 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Ensemble weight [Gruppe 2/overcast/midday]: lstm=0.47 ridge=0.53 (lstm_mae=0.1592, ridge_mae=0.1412, 179 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Ensemble weight [Gruppe 1/overcast/afternoon]: lstm=0.54 ridge=0.46 (lstm_mae=0.0382, ridge_mae=0.0456, 91 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Ensemble weight [Gruppe 2/overcast/afternoon]: lstm=0.57 ridge=0.43 (lstm_mae=0.0332, ridge_mae=0.0445, 90 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Ensemble group weight learning completed for 2026-08-20: 12 buckets updated
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Group method learning [Gruppe 1/overcast/morning]: physics=0.0513 ai=0.0911 lstm=0.0868 ridge=0.0953 best=physics advantage=0.56 (100 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Group method learning [Gruppe 2/overcast/morning]: physics=0.0519 ai=0.0907 lstm=0.0853 ridge=0.0960 best=physics advantage=0.57 (100 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Group method learning [Gruppe 1/overcast/midday]: physics=0.1372 ai=0.2015 lstm=0.2159 ridge=0.1903 best=physics advantage=0.68 (179 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Group method learning [Gruppe 2/overcast/midday]: physics=0.1378 ai=0.2005 lstm=0.2162 ridge=0.1882 best=physics advantage=0.69 (179 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Group method learning [Gruppe 1/overcast/afternoon]: physics=0.0249 ai=0.0107 lstm=0.0188 ridge=0.0403 best=ai advantage=2.00 (118 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Group method learning [Gruppe 2/overcast/afternoon]: physics=0.0170 ai=0.0127 lstm=0.0181 ridge=0.0457 best=ai advantage=1.34 (118 samples)
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Group method performance learning completed for 2026-08-20: 12 buckets updated
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.physics.physics_calibrator - DEBUG - Clamping outlier: Gruppe 1 hour 7, ratio=6.88 -> 4.00
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.physics.physics_calibrator - DEBUG - Clamping outlier: Gruppe 1 hour 8, ratio=4.80 -> 4.00
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.physics.physics_calibrator - DEBUG - Clamping outlier: Gruppe 1 hour 9, ratio=8.25 -> 4.00
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.physics.physics_calibrator - DEBUG - Clamping outlier: Gruppe 1 hour 10, ratio=13.78 -> 4.00
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.physics.physics_calibrator - DEBUG - Clamping outlier: Gruppe 1 hour 11, ratio=9.88 -> 4.00
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.physics.physics_calibrator - DEBUG - Clamping outlier: Gruppe 2 hour 7, ratio=6.85 -> 4.00
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.physics.physics_calibrator - DEBUG - Clamping outlier: Gruppe 2 hour 8, ratio=4.85 -> 4.00
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.physics.physics_calibrator - DEBUG - Clamping outlier: Gruppe 2 hour 9, ratio=8.34 -> 4.00
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.physics.physics_calibrator - DEBUG - Clamping outlier: Gruppe 2 hour 10, ratio=13.90 -> 4.00
2026-08-20 23:34:48 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.physics.physics_calibrator - DEBUG - Clamping outlier: Gruppe 2 hour 11, ratio=9.92 -> 4.00
2026-08-20 23:34:49 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=0.3)
2026-08-20 23:34:49 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=0.3)
2026-08-20 23:34:49 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=0.3)
2026-08-20 23:34:49 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=1.9)
2026-08-20 23:34:49 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=1.9)
2026-08-20 23:34:49 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=1.9)
2026-08-20 23:34:50 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=0.8)
2026-08-20 23:34:50 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=0.8)
2026-08-20 23:34:50 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - INFO - Similar weather underforecast signal suppressed due to rain-gating (regime=rain_overcast, rain=0.8)
2026-08-20 23:34:50 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.physics.physics_calibrator - DEBUG - Saved calibration config to database
2026-08-20 23:34:51 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Physics calibration SUCCESS for 2026-08-20: Updated 2 groups
2026-08-20 23:34:51 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_weather_expert_blender - INFO - Learned from 2026-08-20: 24 hours across 2 cloud types (buckets: mixed:5h, overcast:19h)
2026-08-20 23:34:51 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Weather expert learning SUCCESS for 2026-08-20
2026-08-20 23:34:51 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_weather_expert_blender - DEBUG - No snow predictions for 2026-08-20
2026-08-20 23:34:51 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.db_manager - DEBUG - Database is closed, returning empty list from fetchall
2026-08-20 23:34:51 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_shadow_pattern_learning - DEBUG - No shadow data for 2026-08-20/_system_ - skipping learning
2026-08-20 23:34:51 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Shadow pattern learning skipped [_system_] for 2026-08-20: No shadow detection data available
2026-08-20 23:34:51 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.db_manager - DEBUG - Database is closed, returning empty list from fetchall
2026-08-20 23:34:51 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_shadow_pattern_learning - DEBUG - No shadow data for 2026-08-20/Gruppe 1 - skipping learning
2026-08-20 23:34:51 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Shadow pattern learning skipped [Gruppe 1] for 2026-08-20: No shadow detection data available
2026-08-20 23:34:51 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.db_manager - DEBUG - Database is closed, returning empty list from fetchall
2026-08-20 23:34:51 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.data.data_shadow_pattern_learning - DEBUG - No shadow data for 2026-08-20/Gruppe 2 - skipping learning
2026-08-20 23:34:51 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Shadow pattern learning skipped [Gruppe 2] for 2026-08-20: No shadow detection data available
2026-08-20 23:34:52 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Final Morning daily bias applied: date=2026-08-20, reason=final_morning_daily_underforecast_bias, total=3.884->4.228, factor=1.089, samples=28, weight_sum=17.8904, median=1.1834, q25=1.0832, q75=1.3431
2026-08-20 23:34:52 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Final Morning daily bias applied: date=2026-08-21, reason=final_morning_daily_underforecast_bias, total=0.957->1.180, factor=1.231, samples=26, weight_sum=5.7463, median=1.3382, q25=1.0889, q75=1.7542
2026-08-20 23:34:52 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Skipping hourly predictions for locked dates: 2026-08-20, 2026-08-21, 2026-08-22
2026-08-20 23:34:52 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_rule_based_strategy - DEBUG - Forecast strategy summary: hours=72, bad_weather_cap=11, bad_weather_confidence=11, bad_weather_guard_skipped=2, bad_weather_tfs_basis_cap=7, regime_bias_correction=14, regime_learning_available=72, regime_learning_shrinkage=21, regime_tfs_advantage=3, regime_tfs_risk_cap=2, similar_weather_adjustment=17, similar_weather_underforecast_relaxation=17, static_regime_bias=14, tfs_adaptive_blend=28, tfs_policy_adjustment=12
2026-08-20 23:34:52 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - INFO - Forecast complete: Today=4.23 kWh, Tomorrow=1.18 kWh, Day After=3.62 kWh, Method=AI + Physics
2026-08-20 23:34:52 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.forecast.forecast_orchestrator - DEBUG - Forecast storage skipped for locked morning forecasts: today, tomorrow, day_after_tomorrow
2026-08-20 23:34:52 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.core.core_coordinator_update_helpers - DEBUG - Forecast generated: today=4.23 kWh, tomorrow=1.18 kWh, method=AI + Physics, hourly_entries=72
2026-08-20 23:34:52 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_history - DEBUG - Peak time calculation: Using stored hourly production data
2026-08-20 23:34:52 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.core.core_coordinator_update_helpers - DEBUG - Skipping today forecast update - locked by morning routine
2026-08-20 23:34:52 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.core.core_coordinator_update_helpers - DEBUG - Skipping tomorrow forecast update - locked by morning routine
2026-08-20 23:34:52 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.core.core_coordinator_update_helpers - DEBUG - Skipping day_after_tomorrow forecast update - locked by morning routine
2026-08-20 23:34:52 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.core.core_coordinator_update_helpers - DEBUG - Forecasts saved to database (respecting locks)
2026-08-20 23:34:53 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.coordinator - DEBUG - Hourly predictions cache refreshed: 24 today, 24 tomorrow, 24 day_after
2026-08-20 23:34:53 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.services.service_notification - DEBUG - Notification notify_forecast disabled by option
2026-08-20 23:34:53 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.coordinator - DEBUG - Finished fetching solar_forecast_ml data in 210.104 seconds (success: True)
2026-08-20 23:34:53 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.ai.ai_drift_monitor - INFO - Drift detection complete: 24 metrics saved, 9 events created
2026-08-20 23:34:53 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - Drift detection completed for 2026-08-20: 24 metrics, 9 events, 3 scopes
2026-08-20 23:34:53 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - EOD duration saved: 293.1s for 2026-08-20
2026-08-20 23:34:53 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.production.production_scheduled_tasks - INFO - End-of-day workflow completed (16/16 steps, 293.1s)
2026-08-20 23:34:53 - custom_components.solar_forecast_ml.sensors.sensor_system_status - DEBUG - Status updated: event=end_of_day_workflow, status=success, state=warning